Now they’re a regular army that has had their first «strategic» victory. The MFN has ‘grown’ in all respects: the number, organization, security, equipment. The MFU + the NG + everything else, in brief, ‘the army’ of junta. There are reasons to believe that August is a month of the ATO beginning…… as the number of the ‘field’ battalions of the MFU in the military field has sharply reduced (the MFU are not allowed to take part in an ATO until martial law is announced). Earlier this month, regular units of the MFU were the backbone of the Armed Forces of junta and their main strike force. August was a month of the MFU defeat. I don’t think to be much mistaken if I say that in the area of ATO there are not more than 10 «able-bodied» battalions of the MFU (at the beginning of the month, there were almost 30 of them). Earlier this month, on the front line there were several battalions of the Inner Affairs Ministry (Donbass, Shahtersk and several battalions of the NG). Now the main mass of the infantry on the front are the Inner Affairs Ministry troops (the NG, territorial battalions etc.). If this tendency remains, September will be a month of the final MFU defeat. This brings to mind the following. The situation on the fronts has changed dramatically over the last month. The initiative which belonged to junta in August has fully passed to the MFU. Every pocket is followed by another one. The war prisoners are counted by hundreds per day. There is a prospect of a complete collapse of the front, followed by the release of ’partisans’ groups (and not only) to the open spaces of the country.
Ukraine’s economics has nosedived. And a way out of it can’t even be expected. The GDP, the state budget filling, the situation with hryvna – everything’s bad. Really bad. Besides there’s autumn lurking on the horizon. Cold and hungry. And then winter ….. for those who will survive. And all of this is accompanied by the background of incredible growth of corruption. In Sumy the level of bribes has risen three times (like a feast during a plague). The political situation in the country is even worse. There’s no one who is surprised by ’deserters’. They are declared it by whole units. Simultaneously, dozens of the armed and organized people leave the war zone and return to the rear. Hundreds and hundreds of ‘deserters’ are taking local ‘business’ under control as a compensation for uncompleted ‘obligations’ of the government as well as creating an economic basis of their future existence. A wave of antiwar mood is rising in the country. Two-thirds of the residents (excluding Donbass) want an immediate end of the war (according to opinion polls). Ukraine is on the brink of a revolution. And this brink can be overcome in October.
All this is happening against a background of conspicuous indulgence of Russia by the United States in the international arena (about Europe there’s nothing to say at all. They can’t deny VVP anything. In short, they behave like ‘what else can I do for you’). It was clearly exemplified by the case of captive paratroopers. Back in June, such an event would have been an occasion for the full and irrevocable breakdown of the relationships and the beginning of a new Cold War with a possible introduction of the NATO troops. But in August this event was not noticed (officially) by Europe. The representatives of the United States said they knew about it (thousands of soldiers of the Russian Federation), just didn’t see any evidence (and it was after all the prisoners had given all ‘necessary’ testimony). And how can you not remember Malaysian Boeing-777 which I’m sure will bring many more surprises (because Lavrov, Churkin do not miss a single opportunity to troll their Western partners on this matter). But it’s just a funny triffle. The main reason is different, of course. Europe is already looking at a cold winter. And millions of refugees. Nazis who have already become uncontrollable. And it doesn’t want it anymore. That’s why it obediently plays along. The conclusions. The feeling of the proximity of an epilogue is getting clearer and clearer. ‘The turning point’ of the war, the collapse of the economics, the deadlock in the internal policy, the helplessness in the foreign one; they all indicate that Kiev junta’s regime is on the brink. And the situation can only get worse for it (as well as for all the residents of Ukraine). The elections which are scheduled for October can finally bury the pro-American oligarchic project ‘Ukraine is not Russia’ and open a door for a ‘hard’ dictatorship. What this dictatorship will be like (oligarchic or folk) is still a question to be answered.